M$ \alpha $cro Monitor

The $ \alpha $4casting real-time M$ \alpha $cro Monitor uses state-of-the-art datasets and statistical models developed exclusively for macroeconomic nowcasting, allowing to closely and accurately monitor economic activity in real-time. The predictive and pre-processing models used to produce our nowcasts and forecasts, follow research that has been published in top academic journals (JBES, Econometrica to name a few) following the scientific developments in predictive macro modelling of the last couple of years. The models are evaluated frequently against their competing alternatives to guarantee leading preformance among the industry. The Macro Monitor avoids human judgment by operating entirely on a large pool of data released by official sources. Data are retreived from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources. It is fully automated and the predictions are continuously updated in real-time as soon as new data releases become available, allowing to incorporate the latest market and economic developments, hence providing the most up-to-date views for the current and future states of the economies being monitored.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are my own and do not reflect those of any institutions I am affiliated with. This work is currently under development. A significant update aimed at improving the accuracy of predictions will be released soon.

US

The graphs below show the weekly evolution of the nowcasts for the respective period, as models are updated each Friday to reflect newly released information from the preceding week. The realized figures (labelled as ‘Actual’) reflect the revisions from the official source made at the 2 most recent releases (as indicated by the ‘as of’ date in the hover-over text). You can access the spreadsheets containing the latest nowcasts and forecasts as well as the full history of the projections here. To reveal nowcasts from alternative sources, click on the corresponding names in the graph’s legend.

• Visualizing the determinants of nowcasts and how those have changed across time.